Our current tariffs are calculated to cater for an order of things that will of course cease to be.

Frédéric Bastiat
Complete Works, Volume 7, pages 99 to 103 (in French)
Journal des Débats, May 11th, 1846

In this second letter to the Journal des Débats, Frédéric Bastiat shows how the tariff reduction in England cannot be “fought against” through an increase of tariffs in France. He imagines a fictive example which shows that the productivity gains England will benefit from will be passed on to the selling prices, which will increase the competitivity of English products. The French products not being competitive will only be sold thanks to tariffs, which will need to be increased to keep on their protective role. However, the necessary tariff increase is disproportionate to the productivity gains (in the fictive example, a gain of 25% on the English price commands to double the rate of protective tariffs), which reveals the injustice of tariffs more and more, up to the point when it becomes unacceptable.

Today’s quote derives from the fact that a country’s economy is not static but dynamic, even if some reasoning requires the analysis of an economic “equilibrium” at a particular instant. The emergent order that will be extensively explained by Friedrich Hayek is reflecting this reality. An economic policy is based on the hypothesis of a static situation that will be changed by the implementation of that very policy (as well as other factors). The arrogance of the constructivists is to think that either once their objectives are reached (already a daring assumption), there will be no unforeseen adjustments made by the economic actors, or that they will be able to adapt their policy to the said adjustments. This is contemptuous because the unintended consequences will multiply in a complex economic system and they will soon be overwhelmed by reality.

First letter – Second letter